academic adventurer

Global financial crisis will hurt China much more than the US.

After having mentioned the article in “Die Presse,” time for another look. And this time, it’s one not describing the “Zweckoptimismus” (optimism based on what you see you need to hope for)…
Some thoughts:

The way the global economy has - or is that already: had - been working, it is true: China likely stands to suffer heavily. Considering some of the present developments and necessities, the measures called for are likely to bring about a re-alignment of power from which China would gain and emerge stronger than ever:

1. Local Economies:
   Much of China’s GDP growth is based on its exports to a -formerly- voracious US; much of its real capital, however, are people working locally, selling their wares and services locally. This may not count for much in the economic indicators, but it does account for a lot of employment.
2. Education and Creativity:
   The potential of rising unemployment (because of layoffs and hiring freezes in the large export-oriented companies) leading to social unrest is constantly mentioned. Worth mentioning, maybe, but it seems to be forgotten that hard times can also help encourage people’s creativity. Wanting to make it, having a chance to make it using your own strength… it may be becoming something of a Chinese dream: Encouraging young people to think about entrepreneurial opportunities, providing support for that as part of university students’ education could help, and be a good result.

   Case in point: There is also a lot to be heard about problems with China’s food production. However, there is also quite a potential for “Slow Food”-type products to come out of China, and cheaply… finding the fitting idea, getting producers and markets together… sure, those are all problems. Or chances for a few more people’s employment.
   

3. Greening Economies:
   The idea of aiding/rescuing the economy through massive government investment is to be found all over, from the US to China.
   One particular hope is the creation of “green-collar jobs” through investment in alternative energy technologies and other “green” infrastructure projects. Now, if that is any chance for the US, it is a much better opportunity for China. Lots of people, many of them adept at making do and learning quickly, and an investment that is both helpful in the present, and building an infrastructure that is necessary for the future…
   

China is not only in a position where it could suffer more from the financial crisis and need its government to respond appropriately (according to the articles pointed to above, and also my opinion as sustainability researcher). It is also in a position where the government’s goals of a (socially, therefore economically, but also in its relation with the environment) harmonious society, the aspirations of the Chinese people, and the forcing from the financial crisis, could lead to the necessary greening and economic strengthening.